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Bridge Winners Profile for Gareth Birdsall

Gareth Birdsall
Gareth Birdsall
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Member Since
Sept. 26, 2015
Last Seen
Sept. 20
Member Type
bridge player

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Did the Odds Change? (restricted choice and "Monte Hall" theory)
If you calculate the vacant spaces: LHO has four clubs and no diamonds, RHO has three clubs and three diamonds. So I expect there is a mixed strategy for the defence (amongst all the possible major suit distributions) that would force declarer to do no better than 9:7 odds ...
Did the Odds Change? (restricted choice and "Monte Hall" theory)
Actually, I made a mistake. If LHO has four low spades then his naive best play would be to discard them all and keep a heart. Then declarer would calculate that xxxx xxxxx - xxxx is 6:5 more likely than Kxxxx xxxx - xxxx and prefer to play the finesse. But ...
Did the Odds Change? (restricted choice and "Monte Hall" theory)
Restricted choice does apply - based on the choice the defence had about whether to allow you a full count of the hand or not, so the odds are not exactly 2-1. But the odds would also favour the drop if they had kept a heart instead of the third spade ...
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