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Odds for minor suit distribution

Playing in a 2/1 context, with strong no trumps and 5-card majors, and minor suit openings guaranteeing 3 cards in the suit, how often can I expect that opener will have a four card minor suit?  With 4/4 in minors we open 1, and with 3/3 in the minors we open 1

 

I have read  somewhere that if I open 1 partner can expect me to have a four card suit 86% of the time. I don't recall the odds on the 1 opening bid having at least 4 cards but I would think it's around 95%.

 

I'm interested in finding out what the odds are.  Thanks!

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