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Your lead:  98 6 KQ762 KJ762
Matchpoints, None vulnerable
98
6
KQ762
KJ762
W
N
E
S
P
P
1NT
P
3NT
P
P
P

This is an example from Bird and Anthias book "Winning Notrump Leads". West did not bid. Bird says his leads are based on 5000 simulations for every possible hand based on the given bidding. What would you lead? The two top leads the book and programs give surprise me and I feel with no evidence that they aren't right: 9S = 3.24 and 6H = 3.21. Other leads score lower. If I give N/S 25 HCP that leaves my partner about 6 HCP possibly split between the majors, and both major holdings may be vulnerable ... a major lead may give south a free finesse. Partner very likely has a 5 major but how is that suit going to be established? Whereas to get a minor going I need partner to hold Ace or other missing honour. That seems a better chance to me. What do you think?

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