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All comments by Richard Willey
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Lindo Michoacan Gourmet Mexican Cuisine
https://www.michoacanlv.com/michoacan-mexican-restaurant-menu-1.htm

If the vegan does eggs, you're golden. if not, there are a variety of appetizers
20 hours ago
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Perhaps…

A week or so ago, the good folks at BBO provided me with hand records for every bid ever made at a table that player foo was sitting at. (There were something like 30K bids in total)

Regretfully, I don't have any information what said bids showed. Nor do I know who player foo was or what bidding system they played nor what system was played against them.

However, I can calculate how many times the auctions

1N - all pass
P - 1N - all pass
P - P - 1N - all pass
P - P - P - 1N - all pass occured

In total, these four auctions amounted to 16.8604651 % of all the 1NT openers

So, in short, I can give you a remarkably precise number. I'm just not sure what it actually shows…
July 17
Richard Willey edited this comment July 17
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Thank you for posting this.
July 17
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You might want to consider what happens if teams decide to drop.

For example, a team from flight C does amazingly well and comes in 4th in the overalls in the Swiss. They decide that they don't want to play in the top bracket of the KO.

Who advances?
July 15
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FWIW, I've been skeptical about using rating systems for bridge ever since the days of OKB, but seeing these never ending arguments about masterpoint allocations, KO formats, and the like is actually starting to cause me to re-evaluate my position. Combine this with improvements in machine learning and I think that it might be time for the ACBL to consider biting the bullet and implement a ratings system to complement Master Points.

People keep bringing up a couple problems with the current system. First and foremost, players / teams who have no chance of “winning” a match lose interest a drop out of the event. A dynamic rating system provides new ways to “win”. My team of schulbs might play against and lose decisively to the number 1 seed, however, if we beat the spread our ratings will actually improve even though we lost. If we can get folks to focus on this type of achievement rather than absolute win / loss they will (hopefully) end up with a nuanced appreciation of the game.

Coupled with this, we keep hearing about players who accumulate too many easy Master Points playing against weak competition and then give up on the game when they place into a higher bracket. here, once again, more dynamic ratings might help avoid these issues.
July 15
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Congratulations on retirement. (And thanks)

I am envious.
July 14
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FWIW, here is the disclosure system that I would hope that we are able to accomplish some day (at least for high level events where CCs and the like are disclosed in advance).

Rather than basing disclosure arbitrary standards like HCPs or Zar points or whatever, instead a partnership should be able to provide a large corpus of hands that is consistent with the bid in question. For example, if the auction starts

(P) - P - (1NT), the partnership that bid 1NT should be able to provide 100 (or better yet a thousand) hands that are consistent with a third seat W versus R 1NT opening. In a perfect world, these hands would be generated from the historical record. However, if this is not practical for a given partnership a dealer script capable of generating these hands should suffice. (Note: if the partnership has a history of psyching this particular bid, the historical record better include this fact. In a similar vein, if the partnership is using a dealer script then they better include this as well)

I recognize that the pair receiving this info probably won't have the time, energy or inclination to make sense out of all these hands. You'll want some expert system that is able to take this into and collapse it down into some whatever format that people prefer to consume. For example, if you are a walrus who only thinks in terms of HCPs, the description of the bid could be a simple histogram showing the distribution of HCPs…
July 14
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The folks at BBO were nice enough to give me a file with every non pass out auction that one (anonymous) individual perpetrated on BBO for some long period of time. There ended up being something like 30K auctions in the file. (Regretfully, I didn't have flags for for vulnerability) Of the 3) auctions, there were roughly 18K unique sequence.

Here are the top 10 auctions (As you can tell different variants of 1N - All Pass is relatively popular)

Auction Percentage Cumulative %
1Nppp 0.640% 0.640%
p1Nppp 0.633% 1.272%
pp1Nppp 0.564% 1.836%
1Np3Nppp 0.420% 2.256%
p1Np3Nppp 0.316% 2.572%
ppp1Nppp 0.258% 2.830%
pp1Np3Nppp 0.230% 3.060%
1Np2Hp2Sppp 0.179% 3.239%
2Sp4Sppp 0.179% 3.418%
1Sp2Sppp 0.172% 3.590%

Few quick points:

The top 500 or so auction comprise 25% of all observed bidding sequences made by this individual.

The top 3.3K auctions, comprise 50% of all sequences.

After this point, you're looking at sequences that only occur once in a blue moon.
July 13
Richard Willey edited this comment July 13
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Randy, as usual, you are missing the point

I don't think that anyone would have a significant issue if the ACBL made a formal decision not to provide child care.

The issue at hand is how the decision was communicated (or in this case, deliberately not communicated) to the membership/
July 13
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> Do you have any perception of the number of possible auctions?

Yeap

I also know that the overwhelming majority of them never occur.
And I don't demand perfection.
July 12
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OK, this makes sense. But it doesn't seem to have much to do with ACBL membership per se; rather, you have populations that want to use different rules.

First question I'd be asking is whether the ACBL sanction fee is a dealbreaker for a significant part of your playing population. If it is, then I suspect that you'll either need to run two different section OR not affiliate with the ACBL.

If you are able to charge enough to run a sanctioned game, the important thing to remember is that the ACBL rules and regulations are more wishful thinking than anything serious. You can pretty much do whatever you want so long as you continue to tithe to Memphis
July 12
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Nothing in life is perfect.

The system will steadily converge to providing more and more information, with common bids being propagated more than uncommon bids.

If you need more than this, have the humans provide

1000 hands that are consistent with this bid
1000 hands that are consistent with the auction prior to this big, but not consistent with the current bid
July 12
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Why is this a problem?
July 12
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@john

There you go again, dragging math and logic into the discussion….
July 12
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Even if this were true - and in my experience anyone making claims about limits on the ability of computers to store information ends up embarrassed soon enough - who is to say that this would actually matter?

It is entirely possible that a bot would have sufficient advantages in other areas of play versus humans that relatively weak signaling wouldn't have a material impact on results.
July 12
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Not sure about this.

1. Disclosure from Humans –> the Bot simply requires allowing the bot to observe a suitably long set of hands to be able to model what various bidding sequences show. The humans would need to lock themselves into that set of methods, but isn't that what disclosure is all about?

2. Disclosure from the Bot to the Human could be handled by using the Bot engine for declarer play and defense and locking the bot into a hard coded bidding system

3. If you wanted to allow the bot to create its own bidding system then disclosure would probably need to be based on providing a corpus of hands to the humans and having some kind of AI / language that could summarize the salient characteristics.
July 12
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Jade Barrett used to sell some really nice tee shirts. (Wish that they still fit)

My favorite said -1700 is character building.

Surrounding art work is just as important as the text.
July 12
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Why does this matter?

I doubt that the (current) issues with bridge AI's has much to do with problems with statistical sampling. (Yes, problems can occur, but this has more to do with problematic implementations than the size of the sample space)
July 12
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Peg, take a closer look at the article

No one programmed this AI to do anything.
They just had it play poker against itself for a few days.
July 11
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Nice to hear that you have such a good relationship with your grandson.

I agree with the recommendation that many folks here have made that your grandson start with Bridge Master.

After this, I'm going to go out on a limb and recommend some of the lighter, more comic, bridge books like those by Mollo or Bird. The bidding will obviously be very dated, but they are a light read and hopefully your grandson will be willing to read them.

You might consider investing in a good bridge program like Jack or WinBridge. This will allow him to practice at his own pace.
July 11
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