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All comments by Peter Jan Plooy
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Christopher, it is probably not your point that Kelsey's system leads to the best contract, but…. “All Pass”???
Sept. 22
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IANACP, but I think that should be Sitzfleisch.
Sept. 22
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Anthony, what's wrong with the above is the sentence: “The second finesse is roughly evens.”
The rest of your text is fine, it just does not lead to this conclusion.

A priori for 2000 deals when this situation occurs:
1000 times East holds K stiff
1000 times East holds KQ

Suppose that when East holds KQ he wins the first finesse with the K 500 times and with the Q 500 times.
So when East wins the first finesse with the K, it is 1000 times from K stiff and 500 times from KQ. So in 1000 cases West holds the Q and in 500 cases East has the Q.
Therefore it is twice as likely that West has the Q and the second finesse will succeed.

The same applies if you switch K and Q in the above.

So indeed, which honour East plays does not affect the outcome, but the fact that he played an honour and West showed up with a second x, affects the probability of where the other honour is.
Sept. 22
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Barry, if that is the intention, there really is a bug. Because it doesn't work like that on my laptop. Just Play Bridge is also Best Hand and Human Declares. Every time, without exception. And I must have played 1000 hands by now.

Period. (To quote the Spiceman.)
Sept. 20
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Ah, right, that makes sense. I was too focused on West's pass, as the issue for this post.
Sept. 20
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John, that's a lot of negatives in your last sentence.
Sept. 20
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And what about Human Declares for Just Play Bridge? Also independent of client?
Sept. 19
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I just checked it again. If I choose Just Play Bridge, Best Hand is not the setting on my android. Also, I don't get to play N's contracts.
Both settings are different on my laptop.
Sept. 18
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We switched to reverse about 12 years ago. In my head I still have to do the ‘reversal’ of the count every time…

Not for the reverse attitude though; I wonder why that is.
Sept. 18
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Switch S's 's and 's, and the 's are dead in the water after a lead. Or another lead with A over the K.
Is that highly unlikely?
They need only 6 hcp for their bid. Can be all manner of Q's and J's that do not offer an entry.
Sept. 18
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The “special alert” reminds me of the fact that in the movies FBI agents are always “special agent”. Which makes me wonder if there are any “ordinary agents” out there.

Similar with the senior correspondents on CNN. They never show junior correspondents.
Sept. 18
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This rule only applies for the web version of BBO, not for the app I have on my phone.

Another (irritating) difference is that in the app I will be dummy when N is declarer. So I can have the ‘pleasure’ of watching four robots play bridge :(
Sept. 18
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An aspect that has not been mentioned yet: this weak 5c might well be useless in a NT contract, because even after it is developed there may not be a side entry. A potential difference of 2 tricks between a NT and a contract.
(Not in this case, of course, but S doesn't know N has AKQ and A.)

We accept this as good reason for a transfer to 2M after 1NT with a weak 5c. Why would the same principle not apply for this situation, for choosing between 3NT and 4?

BTW, I would use Check-Back here, limiting my length to five. That would however give N roughly the same options to choose from. And N will also wonder whether S's spades can be reached in a NT contract. He too doesn't know whether S has a side entry.
Sept. 18
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“He is Alexander too.”
Sept. 18
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BTW, regarding the quality of the GIB Robots, I'd like to refer to my post http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/i-hate-my-partner/.
I still stand by every word of it.
Sept. 17
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Serge, surely you don't pass but bid 3???

Maybe W.Robot has hacked your account.
Sept. 17
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It was indeed a top. I had the feeling that I gave away the contract during the play, but I don't think I could have set it. Well, certainly not with N.Robot as partner.
Sept. 17
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I just got a sentence with the word ‘trumpet’ removed by Eugene from another post. I did use a capital T though.
Sept. 16
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West, North and East were robots.
Sept. 16
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At MP's it is not so difficult, if you are sure that it is a total top that you need to compensate…
Sept. 15
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