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All comments by Michael Xu
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Why is it percentage to low to the ten instead of running Q first?

Low to T picks up one stiff K, while running the Q picks up one stiff jack.
May 9
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What is the meaning of 1N? Something in your analysis tells me it isn't what I thought it meant.
May 9
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This auction doesn't sound like they are dog walking, but what if they were taking Pluto out for a stroll?

Ok, that was more of a joke, but besides the reasoning you gave (which makes a lot of sense), how can I know in terms of thinking about potential tricks and giving hands to partner and opponents?


Give East AKJxxx-x-xxx-QJT, West xxxx-Axxx-A-xxxx and partner 0-KJxxx-KJxxx-xxx

and we ain't setting even 5S. Sure, West underbid, but maybe he bid 3S for tactical reasons as it is the most preemptive.

My guess is the problem you have with my construction is South, for you would expect South to bid 5D over 4S.
May 6
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@Michael R.

Assuming we are not in a force, how did you rate your chances on defense? From my perspective, I see only 2 tricks, with possibilities for more.
May 6
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I love seeing hands like this. My hope is one day I can attain this level of awesomeness and carve for myself my own piece in the history of legendary plays.
May 3
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I really enjoyed this! Please post more of quality analysis like this for us fans to enjoy :)
May 3
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@Michael R.

I think I'm becoming very mindful about “small” imp gains/losses. Maybe overly mindful.


For example, when you are in a red game, I no longer buy that you should do anything to make the contract. Before, I would only be thinking to make the contract, even if the way is something incredibly stupid that it is so unlikely to happen.

However, when I start thinking about the IMP odds, going down 2 vs 1 red is 100 points, AKA 3 imp swing. And when you put into perspective that four 3 imp swings equates to a full red game swing, you start to really wonder the extent at what you will go to make a contract.


Also, I notice that when I compare scores, I would note how my side had more 10-12 IMP gains than the opponent's, and I would expect that my side has won by a lot, but then it turns out we didn't, and on a closer look, I would notice how impactful and culminating those 3 imp, 4 imp, 5 imp losses are.


I know what I've said isn't really a question and it doesn't make it easy for you to respond, but I'm wondering what you think about my sentiments.
May 3
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On this hand, what are your thoughts? I'm not sure the math behind the likelyhood of 5-0 break, but it seems pretty low. Further coupled with the fact that East is bidding favorable opposite a passed hand, making it likely that had he held a club void, he may well have preempted 3H.

Do you think 1 IMP gains matter more than how people normally view them in terms of Swiss? I feel like they can be quite helpful in getting VP especially when it comes to pipping.
May 2
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Hey Michael,

IMP odds wise, would you play C-T or low club?
May 1
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Oops, I had a mind slip to think that 2C would be artificial for precisioners.
April 30
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Hey David,

I think I heard it was against ACBL rules to psych an opening artificial bid? But I'm not the lawyer here so I wouldn't know..
April 30
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Doesn't 2 and 2 both show the same hand strength?
April 25
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If double is the wrong bid, where did I go wrong in my comment above on the trick analysis on defense?
April 25
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Hey Kevin,

Your rule makes a lot of sense.

If you were in a FP situation, would you pass or bid 5S?


And in terms of my score analysis of how many tricks I would get on defense, where did I go wrong? Because if my analysis there is correct, then it would seem like if you were not in a FP situation, then it would be correct to double 5S.
April 22
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Hey David,

It seems to me that if your partnership agreed that you are in a force, you are planning on passing, and if partner bids 5S, you would bid 6S?

And if your partner doubles, you would bid 5S, which invites him somewhat to bid 6S?

Yes, that is what I was suggesting which confirms my thinking that passing with a void is correct.
April 22
Michael Xu edited this comment April 22
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At the table, I chose 5S. I saw void, I bid.

However, on retrospect, it doesn't seem so clear anymore. I think it is fair to assume that 5S is likely making, so I'm weighing +450 against the number I expect to get if I double.

I can see one spade trick and 1-2 diamond tricks. I need partner to have 1-2 tricks from his bid to make double successful. Double now seems correct to me, ONLY because of this EXACT vulnerability.
April 22
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@Allan

Have you ever seen Goofy and Pluto?
April 15
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“A definitive answer is not possible. I need more strength to double without a void. With classic shape (3-1-6-3) I want a hand that could take away a king and still be an opening bid.”

How does a person like me learn this without having to play for 50 years?


In general, was bidding taught to you or did you discover it yourself?
April 14
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To those who double: what is your philosophy? To those who pass, what is yours?

Also, to those who pass, how do you judge what your bid is if partner doubles?
April 14
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(1H)-2D-(3H)-(p), how do you decide if you are good enough to double?


I assume if I throw you the CA, that would be a “stronger” enough hand to bid 2N then 3S. Do you mean you would bid 3S over partner's 3m, or just 3S if the opponents bid 3H?
April 14
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