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All comments by Max Schireson
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Depending on how the hand develops it seems reasonably likely that declarer might misguess the clubs? Cash the K then finesse seems natural to me but it could easily be wrong.
March 26, 2016
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Greg - and we would never have woN the zips if you guys were synced! Congrats again on an amazing win and happy to provide some warm up.
March 22, 2016
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Just got a note from someone at the ACBL, they saw this post and update the AX pairs result. Still looking for the zip results. Apologized very nicely for the indifference.

Ideally the issues wouldn't have happened and it wouldn't have taken a bridgewinners post to get someone to notice but at least there is effort. I feel better.
March 21, 2016
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My experience was also almost comically bad:

1. Win in Saturday zips not recorded (extra cool win because we had to play Greg and Jenni twice not far before they won the mixed pairs)
2. A score correction from Sunday AX pairs that moved us to 13th from 23rd overall and another pair from 4th to 3rd in X was not online after a week despite reminders
3. When I stopped by tournament ops I got absolute indifference to the correctness of the acbl live site and was told it was elsewhere on the ACBL site. There is a link buried somewhere that shows the overalls for all events… but I don't know anyone who looks there.

I know they have a lot to process but it feels like they could do a lot better. The indifference (although to be fair a sample of one person) bothered me more than the errors. Instinct says they are related.
March 21, 2016
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Wow. Not much else to say.
March 17, 2016
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Yeah I was looking online but the overalls only go down to #104 at 1426 and that is still too high!

Congrats on another amazing session Jenni and Greg!
March 16, 2016
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I generally agree with Benoit. I think current AI technology is well suited to assessing the likely distribution of the hidden cards based on bidding and play, including the possibility of falsecards.
March 16, 2016
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Any time the second place team is closer to the 114th place team than the leaders you know somebody had a good session!
March 16, 2016
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Final commwnt:

You were not “lucky” to make 6NT. With that dummy after losing the QH you can always set up 7 heart tricks, 3 spades, 2 diamonds and a club and you have the transportation and controls to cash them regardless of the lead but alas you only have time to win 12 tricks. Note that a club lead gives you a second club stopper.

Nor were you lucky to get that dummy with 8HCP. Almost every opening hand that is missing a king will have the QH.

If you were lucky it was to stop in 6NT when 7 of anything went down. Arguably your partner overbid and so your restrained bid when it was tempting to bid higher worked out perfectly. Whether that was lucky or knowing your partner I don't know.

Sorry if I am being pedantic in complaining about your use of the word lucky but I just wanted to be sure you understood that 6NT is in zero jeopardy despite a dummy that is both below most people's standards to open 1H and a poor fit with your hand.
March 10, 2016
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That is a very important message from this hand; other things to consider with your partner in the auction to that point:
I might do a poll to see how people would open your partners hand. While it can take a lot of tricks it is very short on high cards for 1H opening. I am curious how many would open it 3H or 4H rather than 1H. Personally I think I would bid 4H but I am sure there will be a variety of opinions. Similarly after 1H/2C there is a case to be made for bidding 4H rather than 2H; it consumes a lot of space but describes a lot about your hand. Of course it depends on what you have agreed that bid means with your partner.
March 8, 2016
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I am curious how 6NT scored?
March 8, 2016
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I think you got the hands a bit confused, both of you have the AD and neither of you has the AH.

??

Edited: it appears that the 8 diamonds you showed are actually hearts?

If that is the case win the lead in your hand, cash the spades and the ace of diamonds and the king of hearts. Trick 6 (or 7 if a club was led) cross to the king of clubs, cash the Ace of hearts. Now cross back in clubs and run your clubs. You have 10 total to the AKQ so they will always run, you can claim as soon as you see dummy if you can describe the line. You will take 13 tricks always: 3 spades 2 hearts 1 diamond and 7 clubs.

Note also that if both opponents follow to the AH you have a bunch of heart tricks but they are not needed.

Of course if I am misunderstanding dummys holding this could be wrong.
March 8, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment March 8, 2016
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I agree that 7NT is likely to make. Pard probably has something like

JXX
AQJXXX
KJX
XX

The biggest risk to taking 13 tricks is that pard has only 2 diamonds, but then pard ether has a 4th spade which is good if he has the Jack and may still be good or a 7th heart or a 3rd club; if it's the 3rd club then I will likely make 13 tricks if the club finesse is on. Certainly the third diamond is well more than 50% and without it you are probably a coin toss. I would thus put 7NT at around 80% to make.

The question then is what part of the field will be in 6NT. In this case with 24 points across from an opener I think a lot of the field will be in a slam. If a quarter of the field is not in slam, a quarter of the field is each of club, heart, and NT slams then 6NT will probably score very highly.

I think rebidding the clubs to try to learn more about your partners hand would really help with the decision. In the end whether I bid 6NT or 7NT would depend on a) how I thought I was doing and whether I wanted a small chance of a bottom to make a very good board into a top and b) how likely I thought the rest of the field was to find the right contract.

I think in a limited club game I would probably decide 6NT is enough for a good score but in an open club game I would think some pairs would likely bid to 7 so I would go there myself thinking 6NT might be more like an average plus board and so I would bid 7NT.

Curious where the field would up and what pard had.

Added:

If pard is an aggressive bidder and might have something like
JTXX
AJTXXX
KJT
J
or worse then I need to be a bit more cautious.



March 7, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment March 7, 2016
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That is interesting!

As I read the CoC (regional and national) it appears that a team can add up to four replacement players so rather than spitting 33 they would have the option to split 42 and each team could backfill to a team of 6. Theoretically if 3 teams with the same members (I won't call it one team) won 3 flights two players could continue in each flight, each adding up to four more players to the team.
March 1, 2016
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Eugene, do you really think 7 Bermuda Bowls, 9 Reisingers, and another hundred or so other Spingolds, Vanderbilts, Cavendishes and various other national and world championships (including 18 GNT wins) means more than doing well in this event last year? ;)
March 1, 2016
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I am told it is seeded by results in previous years which has the effect of having a few teams that have done well meet later. I do think it is challenging to seed non-open events but I think the way you stated the problem could come across as a bit insulting to someone playing in the event (including me).

Fwiw I know that one of the pairs on the team that beat us made the quarterfinals of the open and along the way beat a team of Martel/Woolsey/Stansby/Stansby in a 3 way and Rosenberg/Rosenberg/Watson/Joel in another 3 way. If you are wondering who their ringer partners were in open they were on another team for flight B.

Yes, it is a challenge to seed these teams and I am not particularly happy with the way it is done, but the idea that all these teams could manage is a section top in a gold rush event is not accurate.
Feb. 28, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment Feb. 28, 2016
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I was a captain and I was told by an experienced player to expect changes. We had been 21 playing 3 and wound up as 18 playing 6. Knowing the team that was seeded 3 I was relieved but it turns out we faced another strong team.

I voted back luck results stand.

Added: one factor that probably contributed to my not noticing the error is that the team we were playing was still “seeded” #3, in what appears to have been nothing more than a coincidence. It thus appeared to me that a few teams had dropped out above us and others had been added, presumably with low seeding for the late entrants.
Feb. 28, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment Feb. 29, 2016
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A 20% slam requires a much more specific reason to bid that just being up against a strong team in a Swiss. If the rest of the match was all flat boards and you came in with 67 victory points after 7 matches and this is the last board and you know you need about 80 victory points to advance to day 2 maybe… but even then you should be more than 80% sure that your opponents didn't blow a game at the other table somewhere earlier in the set.

I think you will get more out of playing up (which I really enjoy myself) if you mostly play normal contracts. As you keep doing it you will find that even the A teams make mistakes.

– Max
Feb. 20, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment Feb. 20, 2016
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I am a fan of saving neurons. Maybe just decide to bid them in a close call at imps especially vul without lots of detailed calculations.
Feb. 16, 2016
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I think that will be wrong at IMPs. When you are vul you will have to bid some where you are less than 50%. Let's say you have a (very) long (theoretical) match ad decide not to bid 20 vulnerable games that are 45%. Your opponents bid them. 9 of them make. You save 77 imps on the games that go down but lose 99 imps on the games that make. You are down 22 imps/ 1.1 imps per board on those decisions. That is a big deficit.
Feb. 16, 2016
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