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All comments by Max Schireson
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Thanks all - it was a perverse reading and I am glad the laws don't work that way!
May 26, 2016
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After this poll has been up a while and gotten some responses I will post a followup poll later in the same auction.
May 26, 2016
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@Michael,

Perverse thought but I also have UI that 3NT making will likely be rolled back. That strongly suggests staying out of 3NT to avoid giving opps a double shot. So while the failure to alert gives me UI that suggests not bidding 3NT, I also have UI in the other direction. When I take all the UI together I think that 3C seems a more favorable place to land, so perhaps I need to bid 3NT. If I am to follow this line I think I need to also suggest to the director that it should be rolled back if I make it?

I am left hoping that the field is in 3NT going down.
May 26, 2016
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What I should say is “what Michael said on the next thread down” (which appeared after I started working on this - and was articulated more clearly).
May 26, 2016
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My understanding is that pards unexpected alert is UI. For example if I am a passed hand and my partner bids 1S then I bid 2C and pard correctly alerts that as Drury and bids 2S. I am not allowed to be woken up by his 2S bid, I should proceed as though he is rebidding 2S over a natural 2C bid. Although his alert is correct and there is no MI to opponents the fact that he is acting under the impression that I have a spade fit (which I learned through his alert) is UI to me.

Similarly I think the knowledge that he really meant to pass a bid which is systemically defined as forcing is also UI.

I think a bid can be systemically defined as forcing and partner may still decide to pass. Of course if this happened frequently you would have to disclose it to opponents, but occasionally one of you might decide that even though through agreement is that a bid is forcing in this specific case it is better to pass. I am not saying I recommend that just that it can happen.

My comments were intended to apply to the case where 2C is defined as forcing and unlimited. In this case is is not likely that pard would actually consciously decide to pass; my comments were more intended to address the issue of how the UI from the failure to alert might interact with the AI from the pass of a forcing bid.
May 26, 2016
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Ok here is my take on the UI affecting the AI, disclaimer I am not a director and a relatively new player.

Imagine instead pard alerted the 2C bid and when asked explained it as a strong forcing club raise, then proceeded to pass. If opponents got in again and you have a marginal 3NT bid, it seems to me that you should bid it. In this case the UI points in the opposite direction to the AI so you should absolutely use the AI and act with great confidence that pard misunderstood.

Now reverse the alert and you are back at the current situation. In this case the UI reinforces the AI; to me this means if there is any possibility at all that pard deliberately passed your forcing bid you you should consider not acting on the AI of the pass because it is reinforced by the UI. With a partner where I thought the first situation was even a slim possibility I would feel barred from a 3NT bid that was not clear.

If in a partnership where it is categorically impossible that pard would knowingly pass your forcing bid then I think the AI is not affected by the UI and you can bid freely.
May 26, 2016
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Weak.
May 13, 2016
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Not at all, and perhaps poorly worded.

I was interested in what top players would do, but wanted to communicate that the rest of the bidding might not go perfectly and have them answer accordingly.

Context: at the table I bid 4H which was doubled and made for a top, but I was uncertain about the bid afterwards despite through good result. One of the reasons I didn't bid 2H then continue bidding hearts was that I could imagine pard (very reasonably) playing me for more high cards than I had and things getting carried away.
May 13, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment May 13, 2016
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Fwiw I agree and answered too quickly. Thanks.
April 26, 2016
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(Confused comment removed by poster to avoid confusing others)
April 26, 2016
Max Schireson edited this comment April 27, 2016
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Adding to Danny and Benoit's points and trying to make it clearer:

Lets look at two cases, 16/10 high card points and 13/13.
- In the 16/10 case you have more than 4HCP on average because more of your cards are coming from the stronger hand. The SNT hand with 3 cards in the suit has on average 3.69 HCP (3*16/13) in the suit; the other hand with 10 HCP has on average .77 (1*10/13). The total holding is on average 4.46 HCP in the suit
- In the 13/13, the WNT hand has on average 3HCP in the suit and the other hand has 1, so in fact you do have 4HCP in that case
Further, even if you have 4HCP in the suit, to the extent they are more likely to be in the hand with 3 cards in the suit they stop the suit more effectively. I am sure you would rather have Axx opposite x than A opposite xxx at NT. Similarly Kxx opposite J is a better holding than Jxx opposite K. When the hand with 3 cards in the suit is stronger, it is more likely you will have the Axx or Kxx holding than when the high cards are divided equally.

Does this help?
April 26, 2016
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If you change the diamond spots to give declaring side the 7 then it's quite reasonable to expect them to cash the A of spades then ruff out the Q before running the diamonds as the most direct line to claim the beer. I am not sure that the laws acknowledge beer-card-conscienceness as a part of the “class of player” involved…
April 23, 2016
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I agree on the preempt.

I think that level of excitement is possible but unlikely with 12 spades and a red K. But missorting a hand is also unlikely.

I think the missort is around 1%, times about 80 hands (I am assuming the missort is less likely if there are 2 kings for example). I think the red honor around 10% likely to generate that level of excitement in an inexperienced player times 2 hands. The club wins by .8 to .2, so I would say among hands with 12 spades it is 80% that the last card is a club. Of course these probabilities are subjective, but I don't think the chance of a red card is nil.

Even 12 spades and a low red card has imo something like a 1% chance of generating that excitement times a lot of hands so is a material possibility.
April 22, 2016
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Well the red A is hard since it's in my hand. But compared to 13 spades that is not very unusual (even if not what I intended).

But still some mixup is for sure my bet and I agree that a mistaken club is most likely. But evenow AKQ-12 and a random red card “I just needed pard to cover one loser” from an inexperienced player is possible.
April 22, 2016
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I very much agree directionally, but I can imagine other possibilities. What about AQ-12th of spades and the KH? 12 sure tricks and almost a 13th could provoke a mind loss… or pard somehow forgetting out system and bidding a natural 1C and opponent holds 12 spades to the A and a red A?

What I do believe with confidence is that he doesn't hold 13 spades. I am prepared to pay off if that ever happens in the history of bridge. 10000 tables at an NABC times 100 hands played per table after 100,000 NABCs worth of play it might happen. Someone made a mistake.
April 22, 2016
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But even given that information I think the odds are still overwhleimgly against. If there is even a 1% chance they would preempt on 11 spades and out that is about 1500 times likelier (1 in a million hand times 1% action is one in 100 million). Across bridge players in a club I think the preempt may be more like 10% than 1% but certainly higher than. 01% which is all it takes to be much much more likely given the bid.
April 22, 2016
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I am one such fool. Do you really think they have 13 spades tricks, one in 150 billion?
April 22, 2016
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One beginners opinion:

Here without the inexperienced opponent jumping out of his seat I would pass even with a “stopper” (one spade). I think openers most likely holding (unless I know him to be very strong) is 11 spades and out, thinking with 6 spades would preempt 2, with 7 3, etc, so with 11 he should bid 7S. Not because I like the bid but because an ordinary bad bid with a 1-in-a-million hand is much more likely than 12 or 13 spades…

7S making feels too unlikely for me to want to sacrifice in 7NT and if pard could make 7NT opposite my hand I think they would have bid it.

All I can deduce from the X is that pard most likely has the spade ace or all 3 other aces and who knows what else, and doesn't have 13 NT tricks in his hand. I don't think I can have any confidence that pard holds a spade; maybe I am wrong but I would not pass 7S at matchpoints holding the other 3 aces and out.
April 22, 2016
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I would bet on either a sacrifice or 11-12 spades and 1-2 clubs in RHOs hand.

If a missort of 12-1 is 1% and a missort of 11-2 is 0.1% the 11-2 becomes the most likely holding and I would double.

Also a not great player might get so excited looking at 12 spades winners that he decides to take a swing at pard having “just one trick”. That or a sacrifice with 11 seem very possible to me.

Note that in the 12-1 case 7NT makes about a third of the time when pard holds the spade (less than half because I know at least 5 of pards cards are non-spade honors). Depending on the odds of the human error I think ignoring the 11-2 case it is a close call.

In the end I would bet on egregious human error over a 1-in-150-billion 13-0-0-0 layout or a 1-in-a-billion 12-0-0-1 layout and a more garden variety error.

Yes, I may pay off to a deliberate sacrifice with KQ-11 spades and pard holding the A.
April 22, 2016
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27C seems clear enough 4D it is. Doh, of course the 2H bid makes right side irrelevant.
April 5, 2016
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