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All comments by Leonard Helfgott
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Your results are highly consistent with 1Hcp being worth about 19-20% increase when in the central likelihoods of making 3NT. Very convincing.
4 hours ago
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I consider it a bad bid, I wouldn’t bid it, but I have partners who might.
6 hours ago
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40 years ago Eddie Kantar (the notable 4CM buff) preferred 1S with AKxx AQxx JTxxx —.
May 20
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Wow! Dave and Josh, I guess you both know the word antipodes?. While I am in the camp where rebid of 2M doesn’t promise 6, rebidding 2H on Axxxx is a highly flawed action when there is a reasonable alternative. Similarly rebidding 2NT with xx diamonds seems seriously flawed when there is a reasonable alternative. (AJ9 Axxxx Txx QJ seems a more palatable 2NT). So what’s the “reasonable alternative”? The 3C raise when a 2C bid actually shows a club suit! ( maybe unpopular these days?!). I also agree with Mike Ma in that eschewing 3D to worry about specifically QTx spades (with more bid 3NT, with less bid a 3S ask) seems practical enough. Yes Kit’s 4S is highly descriptive and could get to some slams, but it does bypass 3NT (and the ability to play 4H opposite strong hearts). If we consider that Opener has a good holding in spades opposite a stiff spade, a good club holding, a pure heart holding (just the ace) AND a ruffing value and 5C is still inferior to the cold 3NT, it seems that the simple 3C raise and simple 3D rebid fit the bill, IMO.
May 20
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For what it’s worth a meta-analysis of Thomas Andrews stupendous 2NT simulations (20/21 oppos. 4-5) shows that a Jack adds 19% to prob of making 3NT and a ten adds 6%. The presence of ANY honor in a 3+ card holding reduces the prob. of opponents running the suit.
May 20
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Somehow whenever I open 1NT with QJ partner raises to 3NT with xx and they cash the first 5-6 tricks!:)
May 20
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That’s an important observation. Since most of us upgrade occasionally and much more than we ever downgrade, how should this be reflected on the card and/or before play?
May 19
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Yes, but there is a limit to granularity in a poll. Hand 3 has only 4 controls, no spots, and horrible QJ.
May 19
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Another way to demonstrate equivalence is to note that 52C13= 52!/((39!)*(13!)). The first two terms produce my denominator and the third term times 4^13 produces 52*48*…*8*4, my numerator.
May 19
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No confusion, my calculation produces exactly the same results, as they must if set up properly. Learned it as a young teenager from “Scarnes Complete Guide to Gambling” and from George Coffin’s. “Poker Game Complete”. Has worked well for over 55 years!
May 19
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I think Dave’s on the right track. Don’t have my computer with me but if you put 52*51*…*40 in denominator and 52*48*44*…*8*4 in numerator I think you should get the desired probability. The 52s cancel, so 12 terms above and below.
May 19
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Let’s assume Opener in 3Rd seat has opened a subminimum good 10 Count (std not Precision) with a 5431 pattern, say AQxxx Kxx JTxx x for example. I am always going to bid my 4 card suit over 1NT, subminimum or no. I do play 1NT not forcing with one partner and always show my 4 card suit, passing only with 5332(or 4=5=2=2).
May 19
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It is interesting to note the K&R evaluation of this problem. We all know that K&R is more accurate for suit play than NT play, perhaps overvaluing controls and perhaps undervaluing quacks for NT play. Here K&R comes up with 17.30 for above hand and 16.20 for the same hand missing the QJ doubleton, (KJ9 xx A10xx AKxx) that is, only 1.1 for QJ doubleton. While that may or may not be low for suit play (I think its too low) it certainly seems too low for NT play. Most, perhaps for simplicity, would simply deduct 1HCP for this flawed combination and call it a 2HCP holding. (maybe 2.5 for NT and 1.5 for suits, subjective). Also calling the control rich hand without QJ as 16.2 seems a tad high, IMHO. Average controls for a balanced 15 count are 5.0, so if we add an invisible 1/2 hcp for 1 extra control (a simple plan) and another fraction for the well placed 10 (the average hand should have 1 ten, not be ten-less, so this is good but not exceptional) this seems like high 15's. Putting the pieces together, and considering that any major bid by partner enhances the hand, it does seem a bit too good for 1NT, IMO.
Addendum: I have found that “splitting the difference” between K&R and Work gives a good agggregate value. Her that would yield 17.65 (15.60 for control rich portion and 2.05 for QJ). For further info on fine-tuned evaluations check websites of Thomas Andrews (Fantasia) and of Gordon Bower.
May 18
Leonard Helfgott edited this comment May 18
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I recall an auction that ENDED in 2C as follows: 1NT(15-17)-p-2C(stayman)-all pass. Opener held a 0=4=4=5 hand with 16 hcp. Of course it was a top (for them).
May 18
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Perhaps it is right for world class players to open 1S in 3Rd seat with 5432 xxx xx AKQJ but I am not there yet.
May 16
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Sounds like this confirms opinions of most, that is: while this might be a below par 18 it is noticeably better than the normal 17, (6 controls and a good ten) and once partner shows hearts to cover our sole weakness, the value scoots back up. Also pulling its weight in spades (pun partially intended!) Thanks for this analysis, Craig.
May 15
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That’s an ongoing debatable issue from both sides. Many players refuse to show a side 4 card suit even with 5431 unless they are slamming. Even more eschew showing the second suit even with weak doubletons and pure values. Although I personally prefer showing the second suit in most (but notall ) cases, I have given up the ghost on debating this issue with the more adamant majority. I WOULDsuggest that a strong 5 card major which could play in a 52 fit in a pinch should lean one towards showing the second suit in marginal situations.
May 14
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Very interesting and informative analysis, thanks. I would have forced to game with the East hand because of the tens, and simply invited without them.
May 14
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Do what Flannery does! (Bid the length)
May 13
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I agree with Mike. The offered sample by Mr. Nowak has 6 controls but significant duplication—-unlucky to not produce a fair game. The hand in question has only 4 controls, no spots and not enough for anything. No comparison. For reference the average number of controls in a 15 hcp balanced hand is 5.0.
May 13
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