Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Ian Grant
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'Cept it isn't.
Jan. 18, 2016
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Oops.

(I wouldn't play that so make mine a “no comment”)
Jan. 18, 2016
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From personal experience these things tend to shift over time, swinging one way and then the other. Players get fed up with one mode and migrate to the other.
Jan. 18, 2016
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Nigel's post confirms what we thought but we won't be working those percentages out at the table; so is there anything practical we can do?

Well we know that the holdings Kx and KTx don't matter; the first we can't get wrong, the second we will always get wrong. So all we need to know is that singleton K is more likely than KTxx to get the correct play.

However, if we know more about the opps hands maybe we have a better chance of getting the KTx situation correct; that could swing the balance in favour of leading the J. In fact we need to lead the J whenever the odds suggest playing for a second round finesse after the first trick goes JKAx.

In the blank scenario at the time we are deciding whether to finesse or drop we have seen 3 cards from lho (the opening lead and 2 trumps) and 2 from rho. This means rho has 11 spaces left for the 10 and lho only 10, so the odd are 11/21 in favour of the drop. This is in essence the thinking behind the “8 ever, 9 never” guideline. Another vote in favour of playing for the drop comes from the principle of playing for split honours, the K and 10 in this case.


If however the lead was to rho's A who returns the suit to our K and lho peters showing a doubleton the odds change depending on how many clubs we now know rho started with.

If it was 3 then the odds for a singleton K onside drop to about 5.4% and the odds for KTxx onside increase to 5.5%. Given that the odd for playing for a second round finesse have now improved (to evens) then it shows that we should now lead the J and not small.


So we now have a simple playable rule.
———————————————
If we know about more cards in rho's hand then lho's lead the J and finesse second time if appropriate.
Otherwise lead small towards the Q.

Note that any opps bidding may give us the required clue as well as the play to early tricks.
Jan. 18, 2016
Ian Grant edited this comment Jan. 18, 2016
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You forgot options for the UDCA players..
The 5 would be singleton or doubleton
The 7 could be from 7, J7 or J75

Jan. 18, 2016
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Bi-Jovian
———
Notes
—–
Transfer bids are to the other suit of the same colour.
Doubles normally show a ‘stolen’ bid; e.g. (1D)-X shows a hand that would have opened 1D.
If in 4th seat after two bids by the opps then X means that the last bid was ‘stolen’, an NT bid the first. (e.g. (1S)-p-(1D)-1NT says that you would have opened 1S, X says you would have opened 1D).

1-level openings
—————-
1NT is a bucket bid for all hands of 15+ hcp that don't fit any of the other defined opening bids; this includes all 4-3-3-3 hands (note that weaker pancake hands are not opened). The 15+ hcp requirement makes it safer for partner (and more dangerous for the opps) to compete after this nebulous opening bid.
All continuations are natural. Jump rebids in a suit show a GF single-suiter, NT rebids show the pancake hand.

1C-1S: Split range 12-14 or 18/19 hcp
Balanced (but not 4-3-3-3), semi-balanced (including 5-4-2-2) or three-suited (4-4-4-1 or 5-4-4-0).
Opening bid shows the shortest/weakest suit.
1-level responses are natural.
2-level responses are transfers except where this is to opener's short suit when it is staymanic. Opener bids their best suit unless they are 3-suited when they rebid their short suit.

2-level openings
—————-
2C-2S as 1C-1S but with a range of 15-17 hcp.
2NT shows an intermediate 2-suiter (suits unspecified)

3-level openings
—————-
3C-3S are normal pre-empts but in the other suit of the same colour OR a strong 2-suiter including the suit bid.
3NT shows a balanced 20-22; responses are as per Heritage Bridge.

4-level pre-empts
—————–
4C-4S are splinter bids showing a strong 3-suiter
4NT shows a normal 4-level pre-empt in an unspecified suit.
Jan. 18, 2016
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I'm up for trying this out, anyone else? We could pkay on bbo or bcl and bid using messages.

I'll publish a bidding system later today!
I've named it Bi-Jovian in honour of Ken Dodd and Jupiter, the bringer of Jollity.
Jan. 17, 2016
Ian Grant edited this comment Jan. 18, 2016
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I thought the whole point is that we are not playing under current bridge rules.
Jan. 17, 2016
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You can't get HIV for example from skin contact, but you can from bodily fluids.
Jan. 17, 2016
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I haven't checked Suitplay but I think the correct play is to lead small intending to finesse the Q at trick 1 in case lho has K stiff.

If lho has K doubleton it doesn't matter whether you lead the J or small.

If lho has KTx then technically you need to lead the J which will get covered (best defence) so you have to play the A. Now when you lead small from hand the next hand will play small and you are on a guess, did they start with Kx or KTx? The odds favour Kx so you play the Q. Leading the J didn't help.

So leading the J only helps when lho has all four spades.

Note that this assumes you know nothing about the opps hands, the bidding or even the play to the first two tricks might give you sufficient info to change the odds in favour of one line or the other. E.g. lho leads 7 to their partner's ace and plays the 2 when you win the return. If you think this means they started with a doubleton and so their partner had, say, 4 then leading the J would be correct because you would take the opposite view to playing for the drop when leading the second trump.
Jan. 17, 2016
Ian Grant edited this comment Jan. 17, 2016
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Check out Suitplay, a free download.
Jan. 17, 2016
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11-14 in 4th, 12-14 in other seats.
Note that 12-14 includes good 11s and poor 15s.
Jan. 17, 2016
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You could have 52 blank cards, first person to draw a smiley face wins.
I never win…
Jan. 17, 2016
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You mean I can't eat my b-b-q ribs at the table, what sort of backwoods place is this?

I've had the BBQ kettle checked out by the fire dept and its perfectly safe to use indoors, I even use applewood chips because they produce less smoke than the hickory. I did have a complaint from someone once so I reduced the amount of chipotle in my recipe.
Jan. 17, 2016
Ian Grant edited this comment Jan. 17, 2016
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If it doesn't mean something specific then it means “I don't want to defend 1NT unless partner can pass my double knowing that I am a passed hand”.
Jan. 17, 2016
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I always carry a small bottle of alcohol based hand gel for use after each session. I've seen too many bridge players not washing their hands after a visit to the loo.

I've never seen someone lick their fingers at the table, I'd he making a big show about cleaning my hands if they did.

I think the organisers of bridge events should arrange for the hand gel to be available when leaving the playing room.
Jan. 17, 2016
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If you are going to have a pop at least understand what you are having a pop at. No bid can be repeated, end of.
Jan. 17, 2016
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Could be fun for an hour or so.

I would add it to my Xmas crazy bridge rules but I think it would be too complicated for a 2/3 board round.
Jan. 17, 2016
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I once asked a winner of the EBU Grandmaster's pairs (amongst other things) when you should transfer with a 5 card suit. The advice was simple ‘always’.
Jan. 16, 2016
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…and the safer it is for the opps to compete…
Jan. 16, 2016
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