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All comments by Fred Strickland
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Certainly better than what I actually did. Also if I had just cashed the SA before getting out with the second club I avoid the problem entirely. If they trump the spade that one sluff on the King won't be enough to give them the contract if it is otherwise unmakable.
May 16
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Yes.
May 16
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Good points I think, especially the restricted choice inference. It is like restricted choice on steroids. With AQJx of clubs the first finesse could have been done with the Q or J. And once that was done the club return could have been won 3 different ways. With AJxx it would go the way it did 100% of the time.
May 16
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So sorry. Their last two bids were 3H and 4H. Embarrassing post too. Sorry with three or four edits I have fixed the typos-I think.
May 16
Fred Strickland edited this comment May 16
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Thanks for this link.
Aug. 9, 2016
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If it is right to include the 3 played cards in the key suits the vacant spaces are 7 each. Does that mean it is a total coin flip, or does the different odds on every 3-1 split (6.22%) and every 2-2 split (6.78%) still factor in? Help me guys, I currently misguess every Queen.
Aug. 8, 2016
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I was under the impression you don't count the 3 played cards in this suit as filling vacant places, or any suit you don't yet have a perfect count on. I might be confused about that.
Aug. 7, 2016
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This was an instructive matchpoint play hand. I didn't realize I had botched until after the game. P-P-1H-Dbl-3H-3S-Passed. They cashed 2 top hearts and shifted to a diamond. I won in hand, hooked the club, and then played spades “safely” by first A then up to the 9, trying to protect against QJxx in east. Maybe at IMPS, but at matchpoints the 3-2 break still has to be better than 50%, so I should bang down AK of trumps, strip the diamonds as best I can and then throw East in with the 3rd trump for a club lead or ruff sluff. Another flaw in my plan was the diamond lead could have been a stiff and I would lose 2 trump tricks with a 3-2 break! Doh!
July 24, 2016
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I thought the play of 6H was instructive too. Less than half the declarers in our game made the cold 7. After drawing 3 rounds of trumps you have 5 heart tricks, 1 spade, 2 clubs, and 3 diamonds, 11 total tricks. The Spade finesse is attractive because it guarantees the 12th trick, win or lose. But the club play is better because it also guarantees the 12th with a reasonable chance for 13. The blind spot is caused by realizing only one club can be ruffed causing a problem with the more likely 4-2 split. But suppose you play the top clubs before committing to the spade. If they split 5-1 go to the spade finesse. But if they both follow ruff a club, in this case claim. But you are still OK if there is still a high club out. Cross to the diamond, concede a club, then claim 6.
July 24, 2016
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At my table East passed 1S. I'm convinced that is losing tactics but it paid off big time for her today. A 1NT balance looks best but a double was found. A 1NT response by me might be best but I bid 2C instead which was very shaky vulnerable. I won the spade and led a low club to the Q. I was very tempted to duck the next club playing for doubleton A but just couldn't get up the nerve. At matchpoints I should have gone strictly with the odds but I'm still not sure what they were. Probably close. Only later did I realize that since I wasn't up to that play I should have led the CJ at trick 2. Works fine if they are 3-3 and you'd be surprised how often a player with Ax will duck there. Almost a full board swing on my poor effort. -200 instead of -100 and almost every other table was -110. Doh!
July 24, 2016
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Some interesting positions arise in club games you don't see in National events. P-P-P-1H-P-2H-Dbl-2S(ReX might produce a good penalty)-P-2NT-P-3H-Passed. D9 lead to the Q didn't hurt. Trump to the K and back a spade to the K looked sound. Out a spade to West's Q. She returned A and a club, declarer took K and sluffed a spade. Then H9, seeing the split and ducking to West (highly questionable to say the least, but it's why you don't see these interesting positions in the big events). West tapped with a club and 3H still could be made by trumping a spade and finessing the diamond. But what if West returns the HQ sacrificing her natural trump trick. It comes back with interest by killing both the spade ruff and the repeat diamond finesse!
July 24, 2016
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Every table in our game played in hearts. Many in 5H like us because 5C was probably reached almost everywhere. We went down 1 and it was theoretically better for us to defend. But to tell you the truth I am grateful my partner took the push. If I lead a heart and they ruff, draw a trump and then show me the spade 6. I like to think I would fly with the ace and shift to the diamond but I don't feel that confident. I've taken worse naps than that before.
July 23, 2016
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I thought this was a great Intermediate lesson hand on declarer play. Establish diamonds before touching trumps allows later pulling 2 rounds and then sluffing 2 spades from East on the diamonds. Whatever they do you can ruff a spade in dummy and make 11 tricks. Less than half found it in our game.
July 23, 2016
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Great hand for the Wolfe sign-off. 1C-1D-2NT. It allows ending in a makable 3D instead of going down in 2NT or 3NT at our table. Maybe a weak jump shift response would solve it too.
July 23, 2016
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Maybe double is better. Certainly my 2C overcall was not a success. 1D-2C-2D-Dble-3NT-4H-P-P-5D-Passed. Good hand for Mike Lawrence's SST evaluation. We only had 16 working points but our SST (short suit total in 2 shortest suits was an extraordinary 1) predicting about 11 tricks. They had about the same working points but SST of 4, predicting the 8 tricks they got. They should have gotten 9 but we didn't double so it didn't matter much.
July 23, 2016
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Or maybe North should balance with a double and collect 800 as we did. Probably West should attempt a rescue, but he didn't.
July 23, 2016
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2H-P-P-3D-P-P-3H. I was kicking myself not finding the heart lead, but partner won the DA and shifted to a low heart to the 9. CA (spade sluff), club ruff, diamond ruff. But we defended passively after that and declarer lost 2 more diamonds and 2 spades, for off one.
July 18, 2016
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My partner raised my 2C to 3C and I bid 3NT.
July 18, 2016
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A player in our game had quite an adventure vs a novice pair. Won the club A. Needed 2 club ruffs. Diamond, club ruff, diamond club ruff, diamond ruff, club K trumped by W. Spade J to the A, out with a club ruffed by declarer. A heart up and a slow duck by East. Up with the K and back a heart left poor East on lead with 103 of trumps while declarer waits with Q9. Mistakes were made but perhaps mention might have been made that some club ruff's in dummy were called for which might complicate the obligatory finesse.
July 18, 2016
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