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All comments by Doug Bennion
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Some play them through 3m, if no jump is involved. 1 (2) 3 is the ‘last’ NFB.
June 3, 2018
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I think it might be interesting to try ‘self-alerting’ (to the table, not just your screen-mate). It would clear up this kind of mixup, and countless others, because the 2 bidder would have announced ‘5-5 in the majors’. Sure, partner would be alerted to the meaning of your call, but you’re supposed to know your system anyway.

It comes with a whole set of different issues but they might be more manageable than the current set. For example, the 2 opener you announce, had better be the one on your card lol.

My partner thinks this ‘idea’ is insane.
May 28, 2018
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He doubled? Oh yeah I see what you mean. You’re seldom wrong Richard, thanks for spotting it.

OK tweaked the sim to give opener 5+ diamonds and at least KJ or so … shouldn’t make much difference but we’ll see. Yes it slightly lowers the chances. 6 still close to 40%, 5 down a smidge to about 85%, and 3NT down to 65%.
May 27, 2018
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For what it is worth, and that might not be much, a simulation has 6 making about 40%, and 5 close to 90%. 3NT makes some three-quarters of the time.

I gave opener 11+ HCP, 4+ diamonds, no 5-card major.
May 27, 2018
Doug Bennion edited this comment May 27, 2018
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I looked at 400K leads against notrump contracts, and KJxx was a cellar-dweller.

http://bridgetoofar.blog/ntleads.PNG
May 22, 2018
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Paul: Craig will no doubt reply, but I was curious. Results for Eric's hand are pretty much equidistant between results for 4333 14- and 15-pointers, all played opposite balanced 10 HCP. For 14-HCP 4333, chances of making 3NT are 38.2%. For Eric's QJ3 QJ5 Q986 AQJ chances are 48.1%, for 15-HCP chances are 59.5%.

Sample sizes were 3K. No constraints for the opponents' hands. Error margins smallish — second batch for Eric's hand make game 49.2%.
May 22, 2018
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I agree the ‘no major fit’ condition throws off the numbers some. The 3343 test hand misses a bunch of 5-3 fits when matched up with 5M332 opposite, and those 5-suits generally play nicely in notrump.

When I include those fits, I find the test hand sits closer to the 15-pointer than the 14-pointer.
May 22, 2018
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I did a 1K sim which should be ‘good enough’. Partner has the queen alone about 24% of the time, the ace alone about 13%, and both about 1%.
May 22, 2018
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Double dummy solvers think that hand is closer to average than one might think, if played in notrump. Opposite 9 HCP in a balanced hand, it makes 3NT 35.0 % of the time. A random balanced 15-pointer makes 3NT 37.5% of the time. Both sims 5K in size.
May 21, 2018
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You could play transfers there. X is clubs, 2NT is natural, 3 is diamonds, 3 is quality raise, 3 just competes. You can use the transfers to stall the auction, to maybe show a nice asset, then later raise hearts.
May 19, 2018
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Shouldn’t make a lot of difference to the ranking of hands. OK if responder is balanced 7 HCP

Hand #4, the ‘worst’ hand, KQx QJx KQJ KJxx, scores 42%

Hand #3, the hand nobody selected to be worst, KJx QJ KQxx AQxx, scores 37%

The tweaked hand, removing doubleton QJ, KJx QJx KQx AQxx scores 55%

That bad hand I composed with ‘xx’, KQJx xx KQJx KQJx, scores just 32%
May 19, 2018
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The problem with downgrading (or upgrading for that matter) is you don’t know what strain you will end up playing. Hands that are best for suit play have aces and kings and possibly ruffing opportunities. Hands best suited to notrump play have honors scattered about, no weak suits especially xx.

Hand #4, the worst hand by popular choice, makes 3NT opposite a balanced 8-9 HCP hand 81% of the time. Hand #3, nobody’s choice for worst hand, makes 3NT just 62% of the time.

That ‘weak’ 4th hand has no weak suits. If I rebuild #3 to remove that ‘weak doubleton’ QJ, so the hand becomes KJx QJx KQx AQxx, now we’re cooking with gas — that hand makes 3NT 84% of the time. 4333 hands are routinely disrespected, but with scattered honors, they compete with even 5332 hands.

I’ll try for a really bad hand …. let me try KQJ xx KQJx KQJx. Yup, that ‘xx’ drops the chances of making 3NT to just 41%, scarcely half the success rate of the consensus ‘weak’ hand.

The sims were quick and dirty 2K samples.
May 19, 2018
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Sometimes the 1 response to a 1 opener isn't genuine.
May 16, 2018
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Google ‘Montreal relay’.
May 13, 2018
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Similar, but won't have 3 hearts in an unbalanced minimum hand (minimum = less than reverse strength).
May 11, 2018
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This is a transfer position for us. Generally, if three suits have been bid, if partner has bid one of them, and if Double is a legal call, then transfers are on beginning with X, and ending with the suit below partner's. So here, X would show hearts, 3 would show a good raise (in context) and 3 would be competing. This is a clear 3 bid, partner would pass, and down 1 gets an average+.

The transfer into the fourth suit isn't always available, but ‘good’ and ‘lousy’ raises always are.
April 24, 2018
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Partner agrees 3 was a better bid. Usually after a 2 opener we aren't looking for a fit, and even if we are, usually the asset is part of opener's long suit. So I kind of misspoke, as usual.
April 23, 2018
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What I should have written was ‘is a nice try, but inferior to a heart, which is the stand-out lead according to a double-dummy solver’
April 20, 2018
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2nd best lead, first being Q
April 20, 2018
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David: As a public service, and fingers crossed this is right — chances of both minors 5-6 long is less than 1%, and chances of 4H5m and 4S5m are each about 5%.

edit: clarification
April 19, 2018
Doug Bennion edited this comment April 19, 2018
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