Join Bridge Winners
All comments by Doug Bennion
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
You asked for frequency, so I (extremely) crudely simmed the position. Opener has 5+ spades with no longer suit, and 12+ HCP. I did not constrain overcaller, but would make very little difference if I did (constraints really slowed the sims).

Big picture. Responder has a GF 12+ HCP 22% of the time, so negotiates best game.

He has less than 5 HCP 14% of the time, so passes.

Now on to hands with 5-11 HCP …

He has 3+ spades 32% of the time, so raises opener.

21% of the time he has <3 spades with no other suit longer than 5, so negotiates with opener.

Then there are hands with 6+ card suits with 5-9 HCP, each of which strain arises 3% of the time, totaling 9%

Finally, the hands you are interested in have 6+ suits with 10-11 HCP. They each come along about 1% of the time, totaling 3%.

Those should add to 100%, give or take.

So, drumroll, you will have an invitational 6+ minor some 2% of the time that opener starts 1M.
Oct. 10, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Murray's partner Doug Drury knew how to cope with his third-seat openers.
Oct. 9, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I'd XX on all those hands, but then my XX is a transfer showing hearts.
Oct. 3, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
If the overcall can be passed, you can check for your own major fit and/or stoppers with 3 ‘Stayman’(here, 3 shows 4h, 3 says no stopper no 4h, 3NT says yes stopper no 4h). If invitational, start with X, then if you like opener's response a 3 rebid is Stayman.

By using X as first rung in a transfer ladder you lose an immediate double (both penalty and takeout are low-frequency and low-utility imo), but gain invitational sequences which are far higher frequency.
Sept. 22, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Two-under transfers beginning with X = clubs or invitational balanced, 2NT = diamonds, 3 = hearts. Opener responds min-max.

Pass then X is your takeout option.
Sept. 22, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Consider an 11-14 range which increases the frequency of your openers by some 30%.

Yes include all 5332 hands in 1 or 1NT, so all other 1-level bids are never 5332, and sharpens them considerably.

Yes play transfers over 1, which right-sides most of your contracts. We rebid 1M with unbalanced 3-fit, and 2M with (1) the strong notrump and four trumps, or (2) unbalanced with clubs and four trumps (which dummies as well as the strong notrump). There are many other ways to handle the additional space the transfers open up for you.

Two big issues for you. You will need a good system when they interfere over your strong notrump which you have opened 1. For example, you hold Jxx/Qx/AKxxx/AQx and the auction you have to deal with is 1 (P) 1 (1) ??. Or worse, (2). There are various ways to handle those situations, but you will need some agreements.

You will also need a good system for when they interfere over your weak notrump, which they will do a LOT. Most players, for reasons that escape me completely, choose to play some form of Lebensohl (blech). You will get a lot of use out of whatever methods you decide to use. Part of this decision is what will double of their overcall mean.

So get used to lots of competition over all of your balanced openers.
Aug. 2, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Another approach:

2 = range ask or any strength clubs (replies 2NT min, 3 max, responder continues appropriately)
2NT = any diamonds, min-max replies

Disadvantage is that min-max for clubs is for HCP strength alone, regardless of club holding.

Advantage is you now have freed up 3 for something.
July 22, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Transfers beginning with X, with transfer into their suit being a stopper-ask. So over say (2), X = have heart stopper?, 2 = have spade stopper? 2 = balanced invite or clubs, 2NT = diamonds. Pass then X = penalty.
July 21, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Just confirming to myself that in some contexts, owning aces isn’t necessarily awesome. When you and partner are sharing most of the high-card strength … say your combined assets are in 3NT range … a hand with no honors but aces just narrowly outperforms a hand comprising ZERO aces.

Partner opens a balanced 13 HCP hand with a weak 1NT. You hold a 4432 hand with 12 HCP made up of three random aces. That makes game 57% of the time. Alternatively it your 4432 hand has 12 HCP and ZERO aces, just kings and quacks, those deals make game 52%. Good sized samples, 3K.

The hands basically become mirror-images of each other. When one has the dreck, the other has the aces, and vice versa.
July 6, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Tens have value when connected, higher or lower, not so much when isolated. HTx is clearly stronger than H7x, and T9x stronger than T7x. Tx(x) would have little value.

>> So just having 2 Aces and no tens, one should never invite with 4432 hands (23% making game). Correct?

That 23% was opposite 16-pointers. Against 17-pointers game would make about 40% or so, which is close to what you need at IMPs, so if you are conservative when accepting invitations, might be worth a shot I guess. Another consideration is you might find a 4-4 heart fit, which makes game nearly 50% of the time opposite 17. Or even a 5-4 heart fit.


>> But KnR is saying two Aces is worth 9 points which is probably invitational to most players. So if one invites, the 16 point notrump partner will accept and we're in a 23% game.

Aces are overrated here imo. When partner has 16 HCP, any honors you have will help support his honors. I simmed 4432 hands with no aces and no tens and 8 HCP, which produced game 26%, compared to the 23% for two aces no tens. You’re no worse off in positions like this with a collection of kings and quacks, than two aces — if you end in notrump. I expect you would rather have the aces if you end in a suit contract.

>>Amazing that taking away the tens and nines will lower the probability from 66% to 23%.

I think it lowers 48% to 23%.

>>What simulator are you using?

As a ‘front end’ I use DealMaster Pro, but I can improve on the outputs.
July 6, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
That is a great 8-pointer, and clearly worth an invite. Three tens is worth about a jack and a half, the two bullets all by themselves are worth more than eight. 4432 is the worst shape to have, but the doubleton is stopped.

Some quick and dirty 3K sims. That hand opposite 15/16/17 balanced makes 29/48/66%, so 1 HCP increases the make-percentage by close to 20%. How does the hand do without those T’s and T9’s? 8xx/8xxx/A8xx/Ax opposite 16, makes just 23% compared to the original hand making 48% — not quite a jack and a half, but close.
July 6, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Yes for sure. I prefer my partners not to falsecard unless it is obvious it will not lead me astray. Defense is tough enough without having to consider that partner, not declarer, might also hold the King despite winning a trick with the Ace, especially if done early in the hand. The impact is worse when declarer's hand is tightly defined (maybe he opened 1NT) and there is less wriggle-room for the simmed deals.
July 5, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I've had some experience actually programming a bridge player. I haven't looked at a line of code for a decade or so, but I do recall that although false-carding might mislead declarer, it can also dumb down the defence. It injects additional variance. If a bot defender always plays the Q from KQ, his bot partner can be instructed to ‘understand’ that when his partner plays the K, he does not have the Q. This information is then used when simming suitable deals, and can improve the quality of the defence.

I might have included a user toggle for ‘play randomly from equals’ (or considered it anyway).
July 5, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
For the curious, Google finds 123K pages for “cuebid” and 225K for “cue bid”.

Oh apparently another possibility, “cue-bid”, is included in the “cue bid” collection, for what that's worth which probably isn't much.
July 1, 2018
Doug Bennion edited this comment July 1, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
I played way too much snooker when young (Toronto). I still catch some matches on YouTube and I often wonder why the game never caught on in the US, although there are smaller-table options (not sure if they are flourishing). And by ‘not catching on’, I mean that each full-sized 12 x 6 table is shared by about 2 million people.

http://www.findsnooker.com/index.html
June 29, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
Absurd. First deal trick 4 illustrates a major bot weakness. Bot on lead after winning the spade Q does not know/remember that declarer is trying to set up that suit. From the bot’s POV, there are 9 spades outstanding, declarer has 1-3 of them (having opened 1), and cashing the spade A ‘wins’ (or doesn’t ‘lose’) in the majority of sims. Opening 1 to exploit a bot weakness might be clever, but it ain't bridge as we know it. You could give that opening hand to a bazillion humans playing a ‘standard’ system, and zero would open 1.

June 25, 2018
Doug Bennion edited this comment June 25, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
LOL Jay. Agree and it would never arise in our system. All 11-17 5M332 opened either 1♣ or 1NT. 1M 2m; 2NT shows 18-19.
June 23, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
relocated
June 23, 2018
Doug Bennion edited this comment June 23, 2018
You are ignoring the author of this comment. Click to temporarily show the comment.
When I simmed the hand, I was surprised that 3NT makes close to half the time, and pulling up in 2NT makes about 80%. Give opener a dozen points or so on average, and responder a max of about 4 for passing, and the balancing 1NT holding tilts towards the max. Whether ruminating this was cause for the hesitation I have no clue, but the 2 bidder should have been inviting.
June 22, 2018
.

Bottom Home Top