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All comments by Doug Bennion
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I'd blast. I'd be nervous about partner raising spades, then ‘correcting’ 7 to 7. Also might partner not raise spades with xxx, so how much further ahead are you?

Simming it against a random AQxxx(x) of hearts, where responder might have a stray Q or so, 7 makes 91% and 7NT makes 58%. Against AQxxx(x) with nothing else, 7 makes 84% and 7NT makes 38%.
Oct. 29, 2017
Doug Bennion edited this comment Oct. 29, 2017
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In the early 1970's the Boston Bruins (NHL) had 4 defenceman Bob(by) Orr, Carol Vadnais, Ted Green, Dallas Smith; hence Bob and Carol and Ted and Dallas.
Oct. 29, 2017
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I was simply interested in which kind of fits would arise when overcaller is 1-5-2-5 and opener has 5+ spades (and no longer suit).

Partner of overcaller first checks for the minor with 2NT, then if his clubs are longer than his hearts he plays in clubs, else in hearts. That’s not quite right because with the right values and 4 hearts and 5 clubs he’ll want to play in hearts, but it’s close enough for this quick and dirty.

Plays in hearts 59%, clubs 41%.

In hearts, 6-fit is 1%, 7-fit is 7%, 8-fit is 22%, 9- fit is 19%, 10+ is 10%.

In clubs, 6-fit is 0%, 7-fit is 2%, 8-fit is 12%, 9- fit is 19%, 10+ is 8%.
Oct. 26, 2017
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Now that's a winner at 86% or so. But it's also a ‘better hand’ than the generic 21-22.
Oct. 24, 2017
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I did the same but working with 21-22 HCP (which the posting now says). Opposite a generic balanced hand, 6 makes 49%. When balanced hand has 2 hearts, 6 makes 41%. When it has 3 hearts, it makes 52%. Interestingly, when it has 4 hearts, the success rate drops to 48%. 3 hearts is a sweeter spot than 4 for some reason … maybe because with 4 there is a bigger chance opener will have both the A and Q of hearts, which is kind of a 1-suit HCP overkill, and thereby weakening the other 3 suits. Dunno.
Oct. 24, 2017
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We used to extend the CRASH principle to any level either position. That is, (1) 2 would show RAnk, but even bigger (5+/5+ say), (1) 2 a bigger Color, (1) P (1) 2NT a bigger SHape, etc.
Oct. 24, 2017
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Less generously, if overcaller is 5+ hearts with 11+ HCP, 2 is off close to three quarters of the time.
Oct. 23, 2017
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For sure, although expert play is usually very close to DD play. I might have added that at matchpoints, 2 beats 3 72%, ties 19%, and loses 9%. Half the time responder will be playing 3 in a 4-3 fit.
Oct. 23, 2017
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Richard: I just loosed the double dummy analyser on each deal. Responder ‘played’ the 3 contracts.
Oct. 23, 2017
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For what it’s worth, I simmed it. I assigned opener 5(0-1)(3-4)(3-4) with 12+ HCP. Overcaller has 6+ hearts, 12+ HCP, no 2nd suit longer than 4. Responder has the designated hand. 1000 sample.

Opener makes 2 86%, 3 70%. In 2, overcaller takes 6 tricks 18%, 7 tricks 48%, 8+ tricks 34%
Oct. 23, 2017
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As Michael noted, 3NT vs 5 is pretty much a wash. However if you could order up a heart holding for opener, you'd request ‘xxx’, in which case 5 makes about 85% of the time, and 3NT about 2% — I guess hearts were hopelessly blocked.

If your heart stopper does not include the ace, 3NT is favored because the diamond honors are ‘wasted’ for the most part, in 5.
Oct. 20, 2017
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Transfers starting with X, major benefit being you get two raises below 3Orange (one raise might be the X itself).
Oct. 19, 2017
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Haven't found that ‘host of problems’ (weak notrump context, so 1 is the ‘strong’ notrump). You find your 5-4 fits, and yes can miss the occasional 5-3 but those often play nicely in notrump. If you include 5M in your 1NT openers, you're also missing 5-3 fits.

There are other gains besides not having a 5M332 rebid issue. Your 1M openers are now sharpened … extra M or shortness somewhere … knowledge useful during competitive auctions and when you are on defence. You have options for some interesting opener rebid methods, like transfer rebids, after 1M 1NT.
Oct. 19, 2017
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Here's an ‘else’. If you put all out-of-1NT-range 5M332 into 1, so 1M is always 6+M or has a 4+ side suit, then that particular rebid problem doesn't exist.
Oct. 19, 2017
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Here is an ‘other’. If you happen to play transfers starting at X, whenever (1) Three Suits Have Been Bid and (2) You or Partner Have Bid at Least One of Them and (3) X is a Legal Call — few do play that for some reason lol — then here:

X = whatever 2 would be
2 is a reverse spade transfer, quite handy
2 is the first of two club rebids
2NT natural
3 is the second club rebid .. maybe 2 shows a great hand with solid suit and 3 just competing

(That general position arises all over the place, first being in advancer seat after say (1) 1 (1), where X = transfer club-cue raise, 2 = diamonds, 2 = good heart raise, 2 = courtesy raise.)
Oct. 15, 2017
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I took the easy way out and simmed the position. I gave partner AKxx of spades, the ace of diamonds, neither minor-suit king, and 12+ HCP. Partner has no 5-card suit except maybe clubs. Can this layout be improved/tweaked?

7S makes 66%. It makes no difference if partner can have shortness, or is 2+ all suits.

When partner has just AKx of spades, 7S is a poor contract making about 26%.
Oct. 15, 2017
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Toronto, Ohio
Oct. 14, 2017
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Well the transfers X through 2NT let you invite with single suiters. 2 should be range-ask or clubs, so you can invite in notrump. Transfers also make it easy to show two-suiters.

You might need some routine to invite, then ask for a stopper that responder doesn't have — 2 followed by 3M might do that. Direct bids of 3 3 3 are unused; they might fill some holes. Ditto 2 then rebid of 3, Stayman maybe.

Yes you give up on a penalty X.
Oct. 9, 2017
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I like this one. Actually you can unpack both opener’s major and stopper status with 3. Opener shows ‘value’ (either 4+ or stopper) in his majors like so:

3 = value in both majors. Then 3 asks ‘4-card hearts?‘ Then 3 says ‘no, but 4-card spades, 3NT says no but stoppers in both, 4 says yes. 3 would ask ‘4-card spades?’.

3 = value in hearts and 3 asks.

3 = 4 spades, no heart value

3NT = spade stopper, no heart value

If opener shows 4+, you assume that suit is stopped. Don't worry about opener having zero value in both majors, sims say that is extremely unlikely. If you get real unlucky opener should maybe treat a 3-suit as a 4-suit. If you open 1NT with 2-2-(54) then occasionally you might be scrambling.
Oct. 7, 2017
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We play 3NT is good 5332 18-19 (which I'm not a big fan of), allowing 2NT to be artificial GF (which I like).
Oct. 5, 2017
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