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All comments by Andrzej Matuszewski
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About 50% of PDFA for first-lead… is already published (read also comments). The rest is given as quiz ;-)
Nov. 24, 2012
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Dear Discutants and other Readers interested in this problem.
I put possible hands of declarer on the 4-th page of article. Please make some comments and/or further analysis (including “deep finesse”).
Nov. 21, 2012
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You are right!. Unfortunately - from this viewpoint, and fortunately - from routine bridge approach:

POLISH PNS NAT assumes openings from 5-card colors.

Consequence of this assumption is very large number of holdings, which qualify to 1C opening. This is why our primitive natural system is often called NAT(C).
Nov. 19, 2012
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Your both S's hands Rainer do not convince me.

1. ? K9x ? xx ? AKJxxxx ? K
a. Natural bidders enters on the second hand with 12+hpc, since they do not use drury.
b. If DQ will not drop (assuming it is not in hands of N), declarer can have serious problems.

2. ? A8x ? xx ? AKJxxxx ? K
This is better. But still he must consider first lead in Spades, which makes communication problems. Also CA first lead will be difficult.
Nov. 18, 2012
Andrzej Matuszewski edited this comment Nov. 18, 2012
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Sort of “magic” coincidence Rainer ;) Look down…
Nov. 18, 2012
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You think Stefan that with the hand you propose S has rationale for 3ba? It is IMHO hand for 2ba. Or for double.
Nov. 18, 2012
Andrzej Matuszewski edited this comment Nov. 18, 2012
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OK 5C ;)
In the other evening 6 would be better ;)
Nov. 15, 2012
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Meanwhile if you REALLY LIKE DIFFICULT QUIZZES look at this:http://bridgewinners.com/article/view/is-it-really-difficult/
Nov. 14, 2012
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6C
Nov. 14, 2012
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Final ranking of leads will be available on this weekend!
Nov. 14, 2012
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With 98% fidelity assume that declarer has SA to increase significantly probability to reach his hand with established Diamonds.
Nov. 14, 2012
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You know that declarer has exactly 2 hearts.
Nov. 13, 2012
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I think that any rational discussion is possible after the evaluation of possible closed hands.
Nov. 12, 2012
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Thanks Stefan!
I will add few pages to this article to explain some non-obvious points. But you have claryfied the basic “surprizes”!
Andrzej
Nov. 4, 2012
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OK. What if instead of J9 in Spades you have J8?
Nov. 4, 2012
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Is there any difference which spade are you going to pitch?
Nov. 3, 2012
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Very inspired ;)
Nov. 3, 2012
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4H contract is not bad here.
Aug. 4, 2012
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IMHO West can not play double dummy in the second trick. Because he has too little information so far. Also he should follow the indication given by his partner.

Also declarer can not play double dummy in this trick. Unblock or not SK is still the probabilistic decision.

May be E is first who may play double dummy in the third trick taking into account the information he has in this moment.
July 30, 2012
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All your moves are definitely optimal from from probabilistic point of view. Unfortunately opponents made optimal decisions either.

The only debatable your move was: a 3D bid. Actually there was virtually no chance for 4-card support that allows 5D contract. Partner omitted 2D after your 2C. Without 3D chances for Diamonds lead would be higher.
July 29, 2012
Andrzej Matuszewski edited this comment July 29, 2012
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