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It is very risky for E to enter the level 2 (having option to bid 1♥) of bidding if you are nearly sure that opponents have more HCPs than you, and S can easily calculate these HCPs. Especially in this voulnerability, when doubling WE can give better score than playing game by NS. E does not hold AKQJ in hearts, which could be very helpful in playing hearts contract. May be he has 7 hearts, but then he had other option: 3♥. Can you give me a reason why 7 is not true. Nobody among voters pass, so they believe E has strong arguments for his bid. What other - if not speculations - arguments we have during the bidding?

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It follows from: 1. W already passed. 2. N opened 3. E does not know what S holds. 4. E does not hold ♥AJ 5. We play at IMPs 6. WE are reds vs greens 7. NS would have no problems to find spades if they have 8+ of them. If E has 3 spades, probability that NS have 8+ spades is smaller.

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When W has ♦A he will enter. When he does not I play low. In 75% percent of cases I will not lose. If E wins ♦Q (25%) then he will not necessarily cash the ace.

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Assume I am S. If we play diamonds we basically win when ♦Q is in hands of W. Our chances are rather low if ♦AQ are in hands of E. It is difficult to say what will be in case W has ♦A and E has ♦Q. Many factors can influence.

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It is very good that Kit is going to enter into this problem. His task will be extremely difficult. To compare 2 lines (or beginnings): “through spades” and “through diamonds” one has to consider subjective probabilities that intervene in the second line. They depends on class of opponents.

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At first glance one may think that there no other line than establishing spades. “Since we do not have communication to establish diamonds”. But we can make pressure on them.

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Yes I agree that 4♣ is sort of automatic i.e. not at good expert standard. We know that in 99% of cases pd will tell 4♥. We can insist through 5♣ but then also in 99% of cases we will hear 5♥. So 5♣ at once is a good idea!

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Good bidding means: considering all possible continuations of auction, which in turn depend on pd's holdings.

If we (after 3♠) will hear 3NT from pd it is a sort of cue bid. There is one shortcoming: pd can say 3NT with ♣QJx, Q10x or even with ♣Qxx. Fortunately probability is very low of such “queen cue bid” since there is high probability of the fact that pd holds only doubleton in clubs.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

E does not hold AKQJ in hearts, which could be very helpful in playing hearts contract. May be he has 7 hearts, but then he had other option: 3♥.

Can you give me a reason why 7 is not true.

Nobody among voters pass, so they believe E has strong arguments for his bid.

What other - if not speculations - arguments we have during the bidding?

Andrzej Matuszewski

1. W already passed.

2. N opened

3. E does not know what S holds.

4. E does not hold ♥AJ

5. We play at IMPs

6. WE are reds vs greens

7. NS would have no problems to find spades if they have 8+ of them. If E has 3 spades, probability that NS have 8+ spades is smaller.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

In 75% percent of cases I will not lose.

If E wins ♦Q (25%) then he will not necessarily cash the ace.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

If we play diamonds we basically win when ♦Q is in hands of W.

Our chances are rather low if ♦AQ are in hands of E.

It is difficult to say what will be in case W has ♦A and E has ♦Q. Many factors can influence.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

But we can make pressure on them.

I ruff in hand and play 9 of diamonds.

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

X is also a pocker move…

Andrzej Matuszewski

Andrzej Matuszewski

If we (after 3♠) will hear 3NT from pd it is a sort of cue bid. There is one shortcoming: pd can say 3NT with ♣QJx, Q10x or even with ♣Qxx.

Fortunately probability is very low of such “queen cue bid” since there is high probability of the fact that pd holds only doubleton in clubs.

Andrzej Matuszewski