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Your Opening 1NT Range - Poll EOA

Thank you to all who responded to my poll, as of this writing 343 voting with 32 abstentions.  

Also special thanks to those who gave me specific suggestions and new ideas for the poll, including Michael Kopera, Hendrik Sharples, and David Wetzel. Even where I didn't follow your suggestions, all your input was helpful. 

My apologies to those I left out. I didn't think of 9-11 or 11-13, and inadvertently left out 12-15. I assume many of the abstentions were here.

For Michael's benefit, this title includes EOA (Expectations, Observations, and Analysis). My EOA is probably not any more useful than the football halftime shows where two people that never played football tell you what you just saw, but here it is anyway. Michael, if you click on the title, it'll go gray and you can skip my bloviating ;-). 

 

Expectations:

    Just from my own experience, I expected the ranges to settle into about 10% weak, 10% variable, 10% precision (13-15) and 70% strong.

 

Observations:

    Weak NT (1 range, 8-10 up through 11-14), about 20%

    Variable NT (2 ranges, 8-10 up thru 11-14 lower), about 20%

    Precision (1 range, 13-15), about 1%

    Strong NT (within 14-18 range), about 55%

    Abstentions, about 10%

 

    3HCP ranges, about 75%

    4HCP ranges, about 25%

 

Analysis:

    Assuming that many of the abstentions were due to Precision players in the 9-11, 11-13, and 12-15 ranges, and that the split between single-range and variable-range bidders is about 50-50, then the actual numbers are probably closer to 1/4 weak, 1/4 variable, 1/2 strong. About 3/4 play a "standard" 3hcp range, with 1/4 in the 4hcp camp. I am curious about the breakdown in the variable range players between Precision and other systems, which might make it to another poll. My poll design didn't do a good job of capturing the Precision players as a separate 13-15 group.

    There is more diversity here than I expected. While a strong NT with a 3hcp is still predominant, there are a significant number playing weak, variable, and 4hcp ranges. It seems to me Precision has morphed mostly into a variable-range NT, and I suspect there is some small ongoing changes into weaker NTs (at least as a NV option) in other systems as well.

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