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Overtricks at Imps

Suppose playing in a team game (IMPs)you are in a partscore like 2H and can assure the contract for +110.

You see that you have a 90% chance to score an overtrick and presumably gain 1Imp on Your counterpart "Safety Sam". But you also have a 10% chance of going down 1, losing 5 IMPs if your attempt is unsuccessful.  At matchpoints you might or should, based on various factors, but this is IMPs.

Well, it doesn't take a statistician to figure that your Expected Gain from attempting the overtrick is nearly 1/2 Imp.  Do you risk 5 to gain 1.

 

 

No, I don't risk the contract.
Yes, I risk the contract for the expected gain.

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