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Is this a guess?

West
7
10984
AK102
AQ84
North
98654
K
QJ974
106
W
N
E
S
P
P
1
X
4
P
P
P

Club matchpoints. You lead the ace of diamonds: 4, 3, 8. Stadard signals: partner has one or three cards in diamonds.

At this point, anything could be right. For example, you could lead a spade to partner's ace and get a club back through declarer's king, the only defense to beat the contract. Is there a best guess, and how do you find it?

Rank your top 4 choices, 1 being your top choice.

Lead a spade
A heart
King of diamonds
Ace of clubs

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