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Invitational Minor Suit Hands Opposite Notrump Opener

Pard and I are looking at how we handle invitational minor suit hands opposite a 15-17 notrump opener. Using some simulation, I've been re-examining some of our thinking about what constitutes an invite and what constitutes an acceptance, and have been surprised at 1) how difficult it is to define useful combinations and 2) how rare they are.

It looks like AKxxxx will make about 50% of the time, so confirmed that there's no need to think of that as invite.

KQ(J)xxx is more interesting. It only makes around 30% of the time, but if opener has a max and the ace, this jumps to around 50%. If I've done things right, it looks like both the values and the ace are important. I haven't run AQ(J)xxx opposite the king, but I'm guessing I'll see the same or maybe slightly better results (opener can have another pip elsewhere).

The frequency of these holdings, as with almost any specific holding, is low - opener would accept on about 1/70,000 hands.

I'm interested to know what others might think of as invitational hands and acceptances. Perhaps I'm overlooking some hands that would make invitations more profitable. If not, we might consider dropping them (more on what that would mean in a follow-up post, if applicable).


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