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How good does grand slam have to be at IMPs?
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In an open Swiss Teams, playing with a first time but very good partner, you have agreed to play a common DC 2/1 GF card. With neither side vuilnerable, you pick up:

AJxx AQJx AKxx

Obviously, it's a great hand, but things will not be easy to describe with a 2 opener, even if it is appropriate in the system, and I, for one, don't think it's nearly strong enough. I decided to open it 1. The auction continues:

West
AJxx
AQJx
AKxx
x
W
N
E
S
1
P
2
P
?

What is your rebid? I'll let you decide, then continue on the next page.

Hand repeated for convenience:

West
AJxx
AQJx
AKxx
x
W
N
E
S
1
P
2
P
?

I decided that, holding boith side suit aces, I was unlikely to be able to find out the truly useful information by splintering, at least with a new partnership. Will he cuebid second round controls here? Will 5 tell me anything about the majors? I don't know, and decided that I would just take the bull by the horn. The auction continues:

West
AJxx
AQJx
AKxx
x
W
N
E
S
1
P
2
P
4
P
4NT
P
5
P
5
P
?

Well now. I can count at least on four heart tricks and the two black aces to go along with my diamond tricks, and the Q means I should be able to ruff some clubs safely. Maybe I should search for grand.

The problem is that I can't search particularly wisely. 5 should ask about spades. Partner will commit us to 6NT or 7 with the spade king. But it needn't be a great contract.

Wisely or unwisely, though, I reasoned that we were against a solid pair who came in second by the narrowest of margins in the NABC 0-10K pairs. They're not Meckwell, but they're probably better than I am. I think they're definitely finding 6 on the hands so far shown. I have a 19 count and a stiff and partner has, at least, the two major suit kings, the DQ and A. 

I decided to bid 5, and partner returned the favor with 6. I bid 7D, which ended the auction. LHO led the K, and dummy tabled:

West
AJxx
AQJx
AKxx
x
East
Kx
K10x
Q109x
AJxx

Now for the big question. As I see it, this is an excellent grand slam on 3-2 diamond, or 4-1 with the DJ stiff. If I get 4-1 diamonds with the 4 to my left, I'll need the hook. If I get 4-1 diamonds with 4 to my right, I don't think I can make it, since I'll need to ruff at least one club in hand.

If I'm right in that analysis, it's about 80%, right? 3-2 (68%) plus some small side chances.

And, if it is, is 80% good enough to bid? They're a good team, but I've certainly beaten them before. I don't need to swing. And I can't count 13 tricks for sure on the auction.

On the other hand, it's IMPs, not MPs. There's no field protection, where you can figure some significant number of bad pairs will bid 3NT, so 6 might be right.

Was I right to push to this grand? Is there a place I should have stopped? How do I figure this out?

THANKS!

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