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How good a 1651 hand needs to be to do 2 over 1 game force?

South
x
AJxxxx
Axxxx
x
W
N
E
S
1
P
?

imp game, neither vul.

opponents stay silent throughout the bidding.

 

You play 2 over 1 game force and 1NT semi-forcing. Opener may pass only when he has flat minimum.

Partner opened 1S and what do you bid?

 

At this point, a lot of you will think, why is a bidding poll showing up as a general poll again?

 

Let me give you some more information and see if that will change your mind on what to bid.

The following simulations were done.

1. North having 12-14 points, 5+S, 0-3H, 3+C. H<=C, D<=C.

2. North having 12-14 points, 5+S, 0-1H, 4+C.

 

The simulation results of playing a heart contract:

1. South playing a heart contract will get 9.447 tricks on average. 8=16%, 9=27%, 10+=50%.

2. South playing a heart contract will get 8.324 tricks on average. 8=35%, 9=32%, 10+=13%.

 

Now, does this change your mind on responding a regular 1NT or bidding a 2/1 2H since the chance of getting 10 tricks is high?

 

Let me add another argument to support responding 2H.

    When partner has heart fit and moderate decent hand, the chance for slam is high.

    Finding H fit early is critical to reach slam.

    For example, when partner had AKT9xx Kxx - AQxx, the bidding could go 1S-1NT; 3S,

    then you have little room to find heart fit and the slam.

    (BTW, the above is the actual hand/bidding that caused our discussion and disagreement.)

 

 

I will always respond 1NT and will never change my rules because of an extreme hand.
I will always respond 2H. This 1651 hand with Aces leading the long suits should be upgraded.
I was in the 1NT camp, but the simulation results is interesting. I am not sure now.
I refuse to vote since this is just a bidding poll disguised as a general poll.

Sorry, to answer polls. Registered users can vote in polls, and can also browse other users' public votes! and participate in the discussion.

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