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Check my math:

Wednesday night club game. I will spare you the torture of a full system explanation, but holding

South
AJ864
KQ6
KJ108
A

I can show a semi balanced hand with 1NT, or a 2 suiter including s with 2 (don't ask) after a 1 opening and a negative 1 response.

I opted to show 2 suits on the intuitive sense that either 3+s or 4s was >50%. I did some calculations using Excel's HYPERGEOM.DIST function, but I am by no means sure that I got it right. The odds of 3+s opposite were 54% (by my math) and the odds of 4+ s opposite were 34% (by my math). And that makes the combined odds of one or the other around 70%. While I do believe 50% +, 70% seems excessively high.

Did I get this right?

Yes. You are lucky to have Excel, Google and a bunch of basic statistics websites and you stumbled onto a right answer.
No. You messed this up proving once again that lawyers should avoid math problems.
I don't know, but if you show me your work, I might be able to verify or refute your claim.
I don't know and don't care that much.

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