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CAVENDISH PAIRS CORRELATIONS AND RETURNS
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I ran some numbers on the Cavendish Pairs. I was interested first of all in how well the auction predicted finish.

Pair Finish Rankin Auction

Fisher-Schwarz 1 4-6

Quantin-Cronier 2 13-16

Zia-Madala 3 4-6

Grue-DelMonte 4 3

Helgemo-Helness 5 1

Buras-Narkiewisz 6 8

Bakhshi-Ericshen 7 13-16

Wladow-Elinescu 8 24-29

Smirnov-Piekarek 9 4-6

Jansma-Paulissen 10 9-12

Fantoni-Nunes 11 2

DeTessierres-Gaviard 12 36-40

This is actually very good. The top six in auction price all made the final 12 as did two more of the top 12 and two pairs just out of the top 12. The only real outsiders were Wladow-Elinescu and DeTessieres-Gaviard.

My second interest was in ROI in the betting pool. The total Calcutta pool was, as far as I can tell, 608,000 Euros, less 10%, or 547,200 Euro.


Pair Finish Price Return Return per Euro Position to Breakeven

Fisher-Schwarz 1 25000 136800 5.472 7

Quantin-Cronier 2 15000 82080 5.472 9

Zia-Madala 3 25000 54720 2.188 7

Grue-DelMonte 4 28000 43776 1.563 6

Helgemo-Helness 5 45000 38304 0.851 3

Buras-Narkiewisz 6 20000 32832 1.642 8

Bakhshi-Ericshen 7 15000 27360 1.824 9

Wladow-Elinescu 8 8000 21888 2.736 10

Smirnov-Piekarek 9 25000 16416 0.657 7

Jansma-Paulissen 10 18000 10944 0.608 8

Fantoni-Nunes 11 40000 0 0 4

DeTessierres-Gaviard12 6000 0 0 10


Note: If the return per Euro is less than 1 it means an investment in the pair lost money.

I was amused to see that a Euro invested in Fisher-Schwarz had the same ROI as a Euro placed on Quantin-Cronier.

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