Join Bridge Winners
Calling all Mathematicians: Specious Reasoning in Probability?

North
A54
7
KJ987
AK32
South
Q10
AKJ83
A10432
6
W
N
E
S
1
P
1
P
2
P
2
P
2NT
P
3
P
3
P
4NT
P
5
P
5
P
6
P
7

 

Please note: North is declarer. (I could not get enough bids into the diagram if I reverse the hands. Please tell me how, in a hand diagram, I can allocate more space for bids than the wizard allows)

The bidding is pretty standard stuff. The opening lead is the 6 and the immediate problem is the two way finesse. (Yes, if are 3-0 the contract is not cold even if you get the trumps right, but that is true whether West or East holds the length).

It seems odd that a was not led, which leads one to believe that East has a honor (or two). That being so, do not the odds favor playing West for length, since he has 13 unknown cards instead of 12?  I cannot immediately see a flaw in this reasoning, but I don't feel comfortable with it.

Any thoughts?

79 Comments
Getting Comments... loading...
.

Bottom Home Top